mokwoche@gmail.com
A Deep Political Analysis of Governance Failure, Public Sentiment, and Nigeria’s Democratic Future.
As Nigeria approaches the 2027 election, one strategic question dominates political discourse:
What if President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is not on the ballot?
This question matters not only because he is the incumbent, but because of the extraordinary economic, political, and institutional pressures Nigeria has endured since 2023. Public frustration is rising, institutions appear strained, and the political atmosphere is more volatile than at any time since 1999.
Understanding what Tinubu’s absence could mean requires examining the failures and tensions shaping today’s Nigeria.
- Economic Hardship and the New Era of Unprecedented Hunger
For many Nigerians, daily life has become a struggle for survival. The country is experiencing one of the worst hunger crises in its history, driven by:
The sudden removal of fuel subsidy
Soaring transport and food prices
Collapse of purchasing power
Naira freefall
Insecurity disrupting farming
Families who previously managed modest comfort now face poverty. The middle class is shrinking rapidly. This nationwide hunger has political consequences: it fuels anger, resentment, and a powerful desire for change.
- Forex Crisis and Economic Mismanagement
The attempt to unify exchange rates triggered:
Historic depreciation of the naira
Investor flight
Skyrocketing cost of imported goods
Business closures
Unemployment spikes
Instead of stabilizing the economy, the policy created deeper instability and national frustration.
- “Japa” and the Collapse of Professional Capacity
Nigeria is losing its skilled workforce at record speed:
Doctors
Nurses
Engineers
Tech workers
Lecturers
Bankers
This professional exodus, larger than any seen under previous governments, has weakened hospitals, universities, and the innovation ecosystem. It reflects a deep loss of faith in governance and Nigeria’s economic direction.
- Insecurity and the Erosion of Public Safety
Kidnapping, banditry, attacks on highways, and rural violence continue to threaten millions of lives. Farmers cannot safely access their fields, contributing to food shortages. The sense of insecurity undermines national confidence and political trust.
- Forced Political Alignments: The Pressure on Governors to Join APC
A troubling development in the current political climate is the panicky pressure on opposition governors to defect to the APC. Many Nigerians perceive this as:
A fear-driven struggle for survival by the ruling party
An attempt to weaken opposition structures ahead of 2027
A strategy to monopolize political resources
Consequences of Forced Defections
Weak multi-party democracy
Erosion of public trust
Internal conflict within states
Decreased electoral competition
Rising voter apathy
Forced political realignment may create short-term advantage but results in long-term democratic decay.
- Election Integrity, Distrust in Judiciary, and Weak Parliament
Election administration challenges
Issues around technology failure, delayed results transmission, and INEC’s communication lapses have deepened distrust in the electoral system.
Judicial credibility concerns
Inconsistent judgments and political narratives around interference have damaged public confidence in the courts.
Parliamentary weakness
The National Assembly often appears too aligned with the executive, unable to provide meaningful oversight.
All these weaken Nigeria’s democratic foundation.
- Nigeria’s Diplomatic Decline: Failure to Appoint Ambassadors
A major but less-discussed failure of the Tinubu administration is the inability to appoint ambassadors since assuming office. For months, Nigeria has operated without substantive diplomatic representation in several key countries.
Consequences for Nigeria
Weak influence in international decision-making
Reduced visibility in global economic and security discussions
Slower diplomatic negotiations
Weakened diaspora support systems
Loss of credibility as a regional leader
Diplomacy is the backbone of foreign investment, security cooperation, and national identity abroad. The absence of ambassadors diminishes Nigeria’s standing in critical international fora.
- Nigeria’s Classification as a CPC by the United States
Nigeria’s placement on the Countries of Particular Concern (CPC) list signals serious issues related to human rights, civil liberties, and governance. This harms foreign investment, global partnerships, and Nigeria’s diplomatic reputation.
- Voter Apathy and the Democratic Fallout of Hardship
Economic pain, suspicion of electoral processes, and visible institutional failures are producing a dangerous trend:
rising voter apathy.
When people believe:
their votes won’t count,
elections are predetermined,
leaders don’t feel their suffering,
they disengage. A disengaged electorate threatens democracy more than any political party or leader.
- The 2023 Muslim–Muslim Ticket and Its Future Viability
The 2023 presidential election introduced a religiously homogeneous ticket that sparked national debate. The political conditions of 2027 will be radically different:
Widespread hardship
Increased political awareness
Stronger calls for balance and inclusion
Growing desire for national unity
In this new environment, the electoral viability of another homogeneous religious ticket is extremely low. The political atmosphere has shifted so dramatically that such a ticket would likely face overwhelming rejection across regions, communities, and demographic groups.
In other words, the political dynamics that made the 2023 configuration possible no longer exist. The model is unlikely to re-emerge in future elections.
- What If Tinubu Is Not on the Ballot in 2027?
If the president does not contest, Nigeria may experience:
A. The most competitive election since 1999
Multiple factions within APC and the opposition will battle for influence.
B. A shift from personality politics to governance-based politics
Hunger, insecurity, and economic frustration will dominate the national conversation.
C. A stronger opposition landscape
Coalitions may form, and public appetite for alternative leadership will grow.
D. Greater pressure for national integration
A more balanced and inclusive ticket will become politically necessary.
E. Possible rebirth of citizen enthusiasm
If Nigerians sense a genuine opportunity for change, voter apathy could decline.
- Conclusion: A Country at a Crossroads
Whether or not President Tinubu appears on the 2027 ballot, Nigeria is already entering a period of transformation. The failures of governance—economic collapse, hunger, insecurity, institutional decay, forced political alignments, diplomatic neglect, and widespread migration—have reshaped national consciousness.
2027 offers a chance to:
Rebuild the economy
Restore diplomatic strength
Renew national unity
Revive public trust
Strengthen democracy
Tinubu’s absence would likely accelerate these demands and open the political arena in unprecedented ways. It may mark the beginning of a new chapter—one driven not by personality, but by the people’s hunger for a better Nigeria. ADC Arise and Shine!!!.
Engr. Okwoche is a founding member of ADC.
